Editor's note: Dr. Ed Link, director of the IPET, has submitted this OpEd piece to the Washington Post. It was unknown at RiverWatch Online press time whether the Post would publish his submission.

     A recent epidemic of negative New Orleans editorials and stories resonate the frustration with the status of recovery and criticism of past and ongoing efforts on the hurricane protection system. Although many have substance, the issues have not been reported from a balanced perspective. Many, to paraphrase George Will, often are “innocent of the facts.” The levels of protection afforded by current and planned structures are poorly characterized, the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet channel continues to be dubbed a hurricane highway, the severity of Katrina is downplayed and storm category is misused. The significant progress already made in New Orleans seldom creeps into the stories or opinions. The magnitude of what remains to be done is allowed to overshadow the progress.

Hurricane Katrina had the highest surge ever to hit the U.S. and tied the highest recorded wave.

     Hurricane Katrina has exposed our inadequacy to deal with a really large natural disaster, the nearly irreversible crippling of a major metropolitan area. This capability gap has evolved from policies and a national complacency that led over many decades to short term investments and partial solutions that sufficed until Katrina provided a painful calibration. Unfortunately, our policies are in as dire need of changing as the natural hazard defenses in New Orleans and elsewhere. Most of the articles have failed to distinguish between role of the policy framework and the work ongoing within it.
     Katrina was a monster storm, a 400 year meteorological event, created record storm surges and waves. In fact, Katrina had the highest surge ever to hit the U.S. and tied the highest recorded wave. Its rare combination of size and intensity gave it a significantly greater surge generation capability than CAT 5 storms Camille, Dean or Felix. Storm Category is only a part of the story and alone is misleading.
     Accusations that work in New Orleans has been piecemeal and disorganized are the result of looking at the situation superficially.  Look deeper shows a sensible strategy at work.  First, restore some level of protection by repairing Katrina’s major damage. This is complete. Second, strengthen the existing system to improve performance over the short term. This is under way. Third, build a significantly better capability as a platform for the future – 100-year protection scheduled for 2011. And fourth, develop alternative approaches for higher levels of protection - also underway.
     Over 200 miles of the 350 miles of hurricane protection system have been repaired and many additional areas strengthened. Yes, another Katrina event on a similar path today could cause flooding within the city. But it likely would be significantly less severe and the planned 100 year system will make more dramatic improvements.
     The inundation maps available on http://NOLArisk.usace.army.mil demonstrate the differences between the pre-Katrina and current conditions. In some areas there is a significant reduction in probability of flooding. The assessment for the 100 year protection system shows a dramatic reduction in likelihood and levels of flooding for most of the region. At the 100 year level or 1 percent chance per year, the primary threat for flooding in the metropolitan area will be rainfall, not hurricanes.

St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana, after Hurricane Katrina struck in August 2005.

     Yes, overtopping is possible from larger events. The 100 year system is baseline protection from which higher levels can evolve. But the protection level incorporates subsidence, sea level rise, and new information on cycles of more intense storms. This will be by far the most reliable protection that New Orleans has ever had. Is it enough? No, protection beyond this baseline is needed and will require integrated natural defenses. But building natural defenses takes time, and the people of New Orleans need base line protection that will enable economic and social recovery.
     Much action has been taken, but not enough to perform the miracle of bringing New Orleans back to its old self. In fact, one of the barriers has been the natural desire to bring it back the way it was. Will New Orleans look different from the past? It must, concepts that promise or propose going back to the old New Orleans are not realistic. Can all of the region be readily protected against “CAT 5” storms? Likely not, one size fits all is an industrial age concept. If we return to the past thinking, New Orleans and the Nation are going to suffer the same fate again and again.
     The situation in New Orleans did not originate with Katrina. We are paying for our long term national complacency in regard to natural hazards. We have to change the strategy and policies that enable this destructive thinking so it will not continue to plague us and our grandchildren. The consequences of our addiction to short term fixes and solutions are far greater than the cost of doing it right.

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